Baseball betting is extremely popular among both professionals and amateur players. There are many competitions in this sport every year, and everyone can form their own significant sample for pre-match analytics. In our country, this sport is not very common, as well as betting on it, but perhaps after reading our material, you will switch your attention to baseball in betting.
First, it is worth briefly explaining the rules of the game. Each match involves two teams that take turns playing offense and defense. The goal of the game is to score more points / runs than the opposing team. A point is awarded when a player on the offensive team runs through all the bases (30×30 cm square pads attached to the ground) in the corners of a 90-foot square (27.4 meters) in turn.
Baseball is played with a ball. The game lasts nine innings, each with three outs for each team. In the game, the defense team has 9 people in the field at the same time. The corners of the game “square” are named (in order, counterclockwise): “home”, “1st base”, “2nd base” and “3rd base”.
At the beginning of the game, one of the teams (home team) plays defense. The 9 players from the defensive team take to the pitch and try to prevent the other team from scoring points. The away team is the first to play offensively and try to score points. Points are earned as follows: starting at home, each player of the attacking team tries to earn the right to run counterclockwise to the next base (that is, to the corner of the square) and touch the base, continuing to run to each next base and, finally, return to the house, earning at this point.
Before a player of the attacking team can start running, a player of the defending team, called a “pitcher” (from the English pitch – serve), stands in the designated place in the middle of the playing square – on the pitch slide. The other 8 players of the defending team are also on the field, each in their own position.
A player on the offensive team, called the batter or batter, stands next to the house holding a round bat, usually made of wood or aluminum. The batter waits for the pitcher to throw the ball towards the house. The pitcher throws the ball towards the house and the batter tries to hit the ball with the bat. If the batter manages to hit the ball in the field, he should throw the bat and start running towards 1st base. There are other ways to reach 1st base.
When a batter starts to run, he is called a batter-runner. If the runner gets to the base, he is declared safe and becomes a runner, otherwise the referee declares out. If a player is called out, he must leave the field and remain on the bench (English dugout).
Main types of bets
There are three main types of baseball bets: money line bet, run line bet and total bet. When you place a money line bet, you are simply betting on the team that you think will be the winner. A baseball run line bet is similar to a handicap bet in other game sports, and a total bet is a bet on the total number of runs in the game.
Money Line Bets
Having understood the principle of baseball betting, it is advisable to learn how to get an edge over the bookmaker. There are two main factors that can affect the results of money line betting:
Defense – Starter Pitcher
Since there are many games played during the Major League Baseball (MLB) season, it is important to keep in mind the rotation of the pitchers and who will be the starting pitcher for a particular game. Analysis of the data on the team’s replacement pitchers or relievers indicates that the largest number of variables is associated with the starting pitcher.
You need to focus on the following statistical indicators of pitchers: IP (number of innings played), WHIP (number of missed hits and lessons in innings played), ERA (number of runs missed by a pitcher on average per game) and WARP (player value versus substitute).
Assault – Batters
In addition, it is worth assessing the performance of not only the pitchers of each team, but also the batters. There are also many statistics to consider here, however some of them are considered more important: PA (number of hits on a beat), wOBA (average number of appearances on base), OBP (percentage of base occupation) and ISO (player’s power hitting ability ) Are just a few examples of statistics we recommend using.
Run Line Bets
Bettors can make good money on run-line betting, but this will require a deeper knowledge of baseball. Basically, in baseball betting, 1.5 points is the same as 3 points in NFL events. This is a handicap (1.5) that must be covered by one of the teams in order for a bet on this team to win.
A run-line betting strategy can be devised that will allow players to estimate the profitability of bets – this is done by converting the run-line betting odds into a percentage probability of winning.
A simple formula for converting odds to percentage probabilities of winning is shown below:
(Risk / Rate Return) x 100 = Percentage Probability
However, professional players calculate the odds without taking into account the bookmaker’s margin. The formula below can be used to calculate odds without considering margin or fair odds:
(Team 1 Odds – Team 2 odds) / 2 = Team 1 odds excluding margin
After converting Team 1’s odds to fair odds, we can calculate the percentage probability of winning a bet on the run line with a handicap of -1.5 for that team.
(105/205) x 100 = 51%
Converting decimal odds to probability is also straightforward. To calculate the bookmaker’s margin, simply convert the odds to a percentage.
1 / decimal odds = implied probability
1 / 1.92 = 0.5208 or 52.08%
We then calculate the assumed probability of all outcomes to calculate the margin.
(1 / 1.92) + (1 / 1.99) = 1.022 or 102.2% = 2.2% margin
Implied probability x (100 – margin) = percentage of true probability
0.5208 x (100 – 2.2) = 51%
Placement of bets on totals
When placing a bet on total in baseball, as in any other sport, you are betting that the total number of points (runs) scored in the game will be greater or less than the value set by the bookmaker. Since each team has 27 outs to hit as many runs as possible, this type of bet is perfect for strategy fans.
It should be borne in mind that in betting on totals, the analysis of the defensive and attacking potentials of the two teams can be just as important as in the money line bets on baseball. In addition, there are several external factors that can cause high or low performance in games.
Influence of external factors
In addition to the pre-match analysis of team and player performance, it is important to consider external factors that may affect the results of your baseball bet. While the results of a baseball game, like any other sport, depend on the advantage of your field and weather conditions, in baseball these circumstances also depend on the factor of luck, and therefore have a slightly different effect.
Baseball stadiums can be of different sizes and this can affect the number of runs performed. Course Field, home of the Colorado Rockies, and home of the Arizona Diamondbacks Chase Field are renowned for their high scores. On the other hand, the games played at AT&T Park by the San Francisco Giants and Safe Field, where the Seattle Mariners play home games, are known for their low scoring.
In addition, temperature, humidity and wind speed on the day of the game also affect the betting results. Moist air is more dense, which reduces the impact range, while warm air is less dense, which increases the range. The wind directly affects the outcome of a baseball game, as it can both assist and discourage batters. If a strong wind blows in the opposite direction to the batter’s serve, the ball will not bounce long. If the wind does not oppose the batter and blows in the direction of impact, the ball will fly further. Thus, wind speed and direction are definitely worth considering when placing bets on baseball totals: the weather conditions in the city where the game is played can be easily found on the Internet.