Why it is so difficult to place bets in terms of making a profit over the long run is the topic of our next article.
If we are talking about people who bet on sports solely for their own pleasure, without analyzing and not getting upset in case of losses, then, of course, there is no difficulty in placing bets. It is another matter if the player wants his bets to bring him a stable income, striving to become a professional betting. Then he inevitably faces certain difficulties. How can you not panic in the event of a series of losses and try to avoid these difficulties?
Many people tend to think that sports knowledge is tested when placing bets. However, just because a person has knowledge of football or basketball does not mean that he will be able to make money by placing bets on these sports. Sports fans are in the minority among its clients, according to research by the specialists of BC Pinnacle. This proves that knowledge of sports is not at all related to the ability for probabilistic thinking in the field of sports.
Moreover, sometimes the knowledge of a particular sport is even a definite disadvantage of the bettor, since his judgments can have an adverse effect on predicting the results and his decision-making process. Yet, if used correctly, knowledge can of course be beneficial.
In essence, betting is a competition to be the market leader in predicting the outcome of upcoming events. Do not forget that when placing a bet with a bookmaker, which, if you lose, makes a profit, and if you win, pays money, you are primarily competing not with it, but with other bettors.
At first glance, it seems that the bookmaker has all the advantages. It sets the odds by having access to more resources and data. In addition, the bookmaker, by definition, has more money to risk. However, most of the resources, data and money come from the betting market. This is especially true of bookmakers who accept bets in large quantities, including the Pinnacle bookmaker.
In practice, this means that the bookmaker can set ineffective betting odds, but only the best players can take advantage of this before identifying and changing such odds. As a result, each player strives to find profitable coefficients as quickly as possible and use them before other people do. Actually, this is the essence of the betting process.
Skill and Fortune
As in other areas where a person seeks to obtain financial benefits, the bettor must devote time and effort to the development of his skills, in this case, maximum forecasting accuracy. However, the player often does not understand that a huge number of people are engaged in the development of this skill at the same time.
It happens that competition inspires people, but it is important to understand the following: the more developed the skill of the players in the betting market, the less the skill of this or that player affects its results. At the same time, luck begins to have a more significant influence on the results.
There is a so-called “skill paradox” that no doubt applies to sports betting and can help us understand why long-term success in this area is so difficult. In short, the mastery paradox divides the idea of mastery into two dimensions – absolute mastery and relative mastery. A gambler may have a high level of absolute skill, but as the difference between the highest and average skill levels of betting market participants decreases, it becomes more difficult for a gambler to use skill as an advantage. The player’s “magnitude” of luck does not change, but luck begins to play a more pronounced role in breaking down the greatly reduced boundaries between skill levels.
The idea of the mastery paradox is relatively easy to grasp, but acknowledging it and accepting its truth is a very special challenge. It is very difficult and probably even dangerous to place bets without considering the effect of luck on the outcome of events. At the same time, a successful person, for example, in lotteries, may well become a loser in betting.
There is another complication in the betting process, namely the difficulty of understanding the impact that psychology has on the decision-making process and the perception of event outcomes. Bid items, when they were placed, bet sizes and much more are influenced by many different aspects of psychology and preconceptions. In order to receive a stable income from betting, a player must be aware of how psychology can influence his actions during this process.
Many of us are familiar with some of the psychological concepts associated with betting, such as “player error” and misunderstanding of the basic principles of probability, the illusion of control and underestimation of the role of luck, fear of failure and a tendency to prefer avoiding losses to making a commensurate profit.
In fact, the list of concepts related to influencing player behavior when placing bets is much longer. It also includes misjudgment of likelihood (bias in judging outsiders and favorites), errors in information processing (propensity to validate one’s point of view and anchoring effect), and even distorted memories of past events (tendency to judge probability by the presence of examples and the effect of hindsight) … As you can see, there are a lot of obstacles on the way to achieving the goal for every bettor.
Player’s own self-esteem
The main goal of placing bets for most players is to make a profit. This means that bettors initially tend to focus on results. Some players use basic profit and loss metrics. Others use Pinnacle’s closing odds, which more accurately reflect the effectiveness of predictions.
As we have already said, the player’s results are often influenced by luck, and therefore it is important to focus not on the results, but on the forecasting process itself. Among other things, this means that the player should give up worrying about winning or losing and the money that he risks. Note that this in itself is already a very difficult task.
Becoming a good player is not easy, but the hardest thing to grasp is the fact that you may never be able to measure your actual skill level, no matter how much you win or lose. For those with long-term betting success, the forecasting process is prioritized over their results, as even the best players in the world face a string of setbacks.
Betters who continually find profitable betting options and use them to generate stable income understand the importance of sample size in analyzing results. Many newcomers, assuming that the results of a small sample will be as high as the results of a large sample, fall prey to the law of small numbers.
The basis of the success of any player is hard work to find advantages in the betting market. Better has a responsibility to understand how betting works, to what extent luck can influence its outcome, and how cognitive biases affect decision-making. Only then can professional betting become a lifelong goal for him.
There are a wide variety of betting strategies around the world that can help you gain a short-term advantage in the market, but in the long term, doing your own research and analysis is more beneficial. At the same time, do not forget that if your methods are generally known, the bookmaker company has probably already taken them into account when placing quotes for sporting events.
However, if you find a profitable strategy and profitable betting options, you will have to spend time analyzing and placing bets at certain points in time in order to extract profit, and money, since some losses are inevitable from time to time. This is the only way you can protect yourself from ruin.
In addition, it is necessary to prepare for possible losses psychologically, because even professional players with vast experience lose more than 40% of cases, and step by step purposefully go to achieve the desired results.